Election day predictions
Posted November 4, 2006
Before switching to the religion beat, I covered politics -- in Boise for the Idaho Statesman and the Twin Falls Times-News and in Washington, D.C. for the Lexington Herald-Leader.
Like most political junkies, I'm trying to guess how Election Day will turn out. Here's my predictions. Feel free to razz me on Wednesday if I flub things horribly.
1.) Voters will vote against gay marriage -- and the Republican party, too. In state after state, poll-goers will back constitutional amendments defining marriage as the union of one man and one woman. While they're there, they'll also vote Democratic. Afterward, supporters of gay marriage will say they're heartened that the constitutional amendments passed by narrower margins overall than in 2004.
2.) Evangelical Christians will vote Republican -- but turnout will be down sharply from two years ago. Nearly 40 percent of all white evangelicals will vote Democratic -- a shift that will throw several traditionally Republican house seats to the Democrats.
3.) The Democratic Party will gain control of the House of Representatives, picking up at least one seat in Kentucky. They'll also win a congressional race in Idaho -- something they haven't done in more than a decade.
4.) Democrats will hold at least 50 seats in the Senate -- maybe more.
5.) Democrats will have huge margins in Ohio -- 2004's battleground state. An Asbury seminary graduate, Ted Strickland, will be the state's new governor.
6.) Democrats will study Strickland's campaign and Bob Casey's successful U.S. senate race in Pennsylvania, looking for ways they can pick off large pockets of evangelical voters in 2008.
7.) Before the polls have even closed, the Republican blame game will begin. Although dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq and discontent with the scandal-plagued Congress proved lethal for the GOP, some Republican moderates will blame the Christian right for the setbacks, saying they've pushed the party out of the mainstream.
8.) The New Jersey gay marriage court ruling and the Ted Haggard scandal will have little impact on the outcome.
If anyone has a better crystal ball than I do, feel free to post your predictions.
Archived Comments
I predict Frank Lockwood, the Democratic challenger (not to be confused with Frank Lockwood, the Bible Belt Blogger) will post a stunning come-from-behind victory over Republican incumbent Fred Hemmings, a former world champion surfer, in Hawaii's 25th Senatorial District. Lockwood did not even have the full support of Hawaii's Democratic Party, as he was considered too either too conservative or too independent by many of it's members.
The Republicans are going to be decimated in Ohio.
From my crystal ball, sitting right here in the capital.
I don't know. As a liberal yellow dog democrat, I'd love to think we could regain at least one house of congress, but never underestimate the ability of the modern democratic party to screw things up.
Remember 2000, when the party won the election at the polls and lost it at the supreme court, and 2004, when we gave away an election that was by all reasonable accounts ours to lose.
The Republicans have taken a page from the playbook of the old time democrats like Mayor Daley in Chicago, and have a tremendous get out the vote apparatus in place, though I don't imagine they'll get out the cemetery vote as well as he did. I think it will be closer than the current press suggests, but if we can avoid a disaster for three more days, we might be able to squeak by.