Election eve predictions -- some right, some wrong
Posted November 8, 2006
Last week, I made some predictions about the outcome of the mid-term elections. And my guesses weren't horribly wrong. Here's what I said on Oct. 4th.
Prediction 1.) Voters will vote against gay marriage -- and the Republican party, too. In state after state, poll-goers will back constitutional amendments defining marriage as the union of one man and one woman. While they're there, they'll also vote Democratic. Afterward, supporters of gay marriage will say they're heartened that the constitutional amendments passed by narrower margins overall than in 2004.
Reality: Close, but not quite. It was definitely a Democratic night. And 7 of 8 anti-gay-marriage ballot measures passed -- by narrower margins than in past years. However, Arizona defeated the anti-gay-marriage ballot measure 51 percent to 49 percent.
Prediction 2.) Evangelical Christians will vote Republican -- but turnout will be down sharply from two years ago. Nearly 40 percent of all white evangelicals will vote Democratic -- a shift that will throw several traditionally Republican house seats to the Democrats.
Reality: Still looking for polling data on this point.
Prediction 3.) The Democratic Party will gain control of the House of Representatives, picking up at least one seat in Kentucky. They'll also win a congressional race in Idaho -- something they haven't done in more than a decade.
Reality: The Democrats carried the House and gained a seat in Kentucky, but Republican Bill Sali held on to win in Idaho, capturing 50 percent of the vote.
Prediction 4.) Democrats will hold at least 50 seats in the Senate -- maybe more.
Reality: The Democrats have won 50 seats and appear to have triumphed in Virginia, which would bump them to 51.
Prediction 5.) Democrats will have huge margins in Ohio -- 2004's battleground state. An Asbury seminary graduate, Ted Strickland, will be the state's new governor.
Reality: The margins were enormous in the race for U.S. Senate and Governor.
Prediction 6.) Democrats will study Strickland's campaign and Bob Casey's successful U.S. senate race in Pennsylvania, looking for ways they can pick off large pockets of evangelical voters in 2008.
Reality: A group called Faithful Democrats sent out a press release today crowing about the victories of Strickland and Casey, saying they show that Democrats can successfully woo evangelicals in 2008.
Prediction 7.) Before the polls have even closed, the Republican blame game will begin. Although dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq and discontent with the scandal-plagued Congress proved lethal for the GOP, some Republican moderates will blame the Christian right for the setbacks, saying they've pushed the party out of the mainstream.
Reality: The blame game has begun. If you don't believe me, ask Donald Rumsfeld. Look for the Christian right to be blamed in coming days.
Prediction 8.) The New Jersey gay marriage court ruling and the Ted Haggard scandal will have little impact on the outcome.
Reality: It's clear the New Jersey court ruling didn't give Republicans a magic bullet -- in Virginia or anywhere else. Haggard's humiliation didn't help Republicans any, but I haven't seen any data suggesting that he cost them any votes.
If marriage is defined as being between one man and one woman, wouldn't that outlaw re-marriage after divorce as well? Afterall, you've already married your *one* man or woman, right?
just sayin.