Bible Belt Blogger: A few observations from Michigan

Frank Lockwood

ANALYSIS

To paraphrase Mark Twain, there are four kinds of falsehoods: lies, darned lies, statistics. And polls.

This afternoon, as I rushed to finish my latest story on the Michigan presidential primary, I checked the latest polls. Four out of five showed John McCain leading here. I completed my story, took a short nap, and awoke to discover four brand-new polls awaiting me. In three, Mitt Romney is decisively ahead. In the fourth, he trails, but only by one percent.

One week after the "Obama Wins!" debacle in New Hampshire, the pollsters are struggling again to predict the outcome.

A few thoughts from the campaign trail, less than 72 hours from the Michigan primary:

• The key issue here is jobs. Whichever candidate persuades voters he can fix Michigan's economy will win. Mike Huckabee is great at communicating to voters: "I feel your pain. I know what it's like to be poor. I know what it's like to struggle. I want a better America for your kids and grandkids." But Huckabee isn't explaining, in great detail, how he'll fix the economy [although he's scheduled to give a big speech on Monday. So more specifics could be forthcoming...] John McCain's message, boiled down to the basics, seems to be: "I'm going to give you straight talk. The economy's broken. Jobs have vanished. I'm not going to lie to you and tell you I can bring them all back." Mitt Romney's message, in a nutshell, is: "I'm from here so I care more about this place than the rest of the pack. I fixed the Olympics, so I can fix Detroit. I turned around failing businesses, so I can help the Big Three automakers bounce back. Plus, I know a thing or two about the industry. My dad ran American motors before he served as your governor..." If Romney wins here, and tonight's polls suggest he could, it will be because Michigan voters think he's best equipped to save Michigan's economy.

• Gov. Mike Huckabee's support among born again Christians has apparently slipped from December. After capturing 46 percent of the evangelical vote in Iowa, he slipped in New Hampshire, losing more than two-thirds of the evangelical vote. Mike Huckabee can't win in Michigan -- or anywhere else, for that matter -- if he's only capturing one-third of the evangelical vote.

• Mike Huckabee needs support from pro-life Catholics in order to win the GOP nomination, but polls suggest he's not getting it. My guess -- steps Huckabee took to firm up his support among evangelicals may have alienated many Catholic voters, including some pro-life Catholics who share his views on abortion. If things ever calm down long enough, I'd like to write a story on this topic.

• Looks are often deceiving on the campaign trail. The morning after the New Hampshire primary, I attended a packed John McCain rally with rock music blaring and confetti flying through the air. A high school band played patriotic music and teenagers waved campaign banners excitedly. The young musicians sported McCain stickers and cheered vigorously for the Next President of the United States. The riotious welcome showed that McCain is on a roll in Grand Rapids. Or did it? It turns out that 285 members of the audience -- roughly half those in attendance -- are students at a local Christian school. I interviewed about a half-dozen kids at random and asked them who they support. Half of them -- even though they were wearing McCain campaign stickers -- said Mike Huckabee.

• If Huckabee does well, it will be because grassroots Christian activists performed a small miracle. Gov. Romney's lead in the Detroit suburbs is massive. Gov. Huckabee needs big turnout in Western Michgian. In addition to geography, there's also an age gap. In one recent poll, Mike Huckabee is ahead among voters beneath the age of 35 (20 percent Huckabee, 19 percent McCain, 9 percent Romney.) Among voters 55 and over, it's Romney 33 percent, McCain 25 percent and Huckabee 13 percent.

• Gov. Huckabee is a tremendous speaker, and he knows how to move an audience. I attended my first campaign rally in 1983 (Reagan -- in Klamath Falls, Oregon), so I've been doing this for a quarter-century and rarely have I seen a communicator this good. Given what's occurred on the campaign trail thus far, it's hard for me to picture nominee Mitt Romney picking Huckabee to be his running mate. And a Thompson-Huckabee ticket would defy conventional wisdom [and probably the laws of politics, gravity and physics, too...] But a Giuliani-Huckabee ticket might make sense. [Huckabee could be Giuliani's ambassador to the born again community, helping to drum up support among skeptical evangelical voters...] A McCain-Huckabee ticket might attract voters [although it would drive Rush Limbaugh and other members of the GOP establishment absolutely bonkers.]